EB-3 China Insights

Understanding the Numbers, Backlogs, and Predictions

EB-3 China Backlog and Visa Predictions

The EB-3 China backlog has significant implications for applicants. As of the latest analysis:

  • Total Pending Cases (2020-2022): Approximately 10,714 cases.
  • Pending Cases (April-August 2020): 945 cases still waiting for visa processing.
  • Pending Cases (September 2020-August 2021): 6,412 cases ahead of June 2021, with further cases up to August adding to the total.

Key Numbers and Trends

Each fiscal year, EB-3 China receives approximately 3,220 visa numbers, subject to adjustments from rollover and redistribution. Unused visas from family-based categories and other employment-based categories can increase this allocation.

Current processing rates suggest it may take 2-3 years to clear the backlog up to 2021, and additional time for cases filed later.

Predictions

Based on historical trends:

  • EB-3 China priority dates are advancing at a rate of 2 months per Visa Bulletin.
  • June-August 2023 Predictions: Steady advancements are expected, with priority dates likely reaching mid-2021 by the end of 2023.
  • Visa Predictions for 2021 Cases: Applicants with 2021 priority dates may expect to see movement by mid-to-late 2025, depending on USCIS processing speeds and rollover mechanisms.
  • Visa availability is not expected to be a significant blocker, thanks to rollover mechanisms.

For more detailed updates, stay tuned to the Visa Bulletin and USCIS announcements.